THE SKY IS FALLING

As I mentioned in my very first blog entry here, "Your Proctologist Called, He Found Your Head", I briefly talked about a blog I used to do about 5 years ago that strictly had to do with tropical weather. In fact, I did that blog from July 18, 2005 to Sep. 20, 2006. That included most of the record smashing 28 storm year of 2005. Here's one blog entry from back then to give you a better understanding of how that blog went down;

20 September 2005 22:57 CDT
Posted by Rich C

Rita Texas bound

Hurricane Rita passes just to the south of the Florida Keys and has entered the Gulf of Mexico as a category 2 hurricane. It now looks like it's setting it's sights on the Texas coast. Long range models are still a little uncertain at this time, but most currently have Texas landfall anywhere from Brownsville to the Sabine river.

The official track has the central Texas coast near Matagorda Bay as the target. Rita is moving along the southern edge of high pressure currently centered over east Texas. The million dollar question is, what does this high do? This will determine where Rita goes. This high is expected to be pushed to the east because of an approaching front from the west. This would allow Rita to go around the western edge of the high, meaning it turns to the northwest. Where and when it makes this turn could be the difference in several hundred miles of coastline.


Now the bad news. This hurricane is getting strong and it's getting big. It has great outflow, no wind shear, and very warm water with which to work with, all key ingredients for intensification. It should reach category 4 status late Wednesday, and is expected to make landfall as a category 4. Some models are indicating that it could get even stronger and reach category 5 status at some point.

Wherever it ends up going, it's going to be a very powerful hurricane when it makes landfall, and the effects from it will be felt for at least 150 miles or more from the center.

The part in yellow is exactly what happened. I pointed that out 4 days before Rita made that turn and hit near the mouth of the Sabine River at the Texas/Louisiana border, while all the "experts" had Rita focused on Matagorda Bay to Galveston. And as Rita strengthened, along with being on the heals of Katrina just a month earlier, this caused the nightmare mass evacuation that had every freeway and street in the Greater Houston area at a standstill for at least 2 days.

Now I'm certainly no expert, I have no meteorological training or any of that jazz. I've just lived in hurricane country my entire life and following and tracking these storms is a hobby I've had since I was a teenager (Just a few short years ago). From years of just studying these things on my own, watching what happens under certain conditions, I feel I have a pretty good idea when it comes to what these storms do. So when a storm forms, I really don't need weather guy on TV giving me the 4-1-1. Now everybody is not me so probably 99% or more of the population has to rely on weather guy, which would be fine if not for a phenomenon that seems to be standard procedure with the media these days, and that's fear mongering.

As the 1st month of the 2010 hurricane season comes to a close, the first named system of the season pops up in the southern Gulf of Mexico (Alex), and the media is already cranking up the fear machine to full blast. I'm going to call out the guy on ABC 13 here in Houston because that's the station I watch, but I can guarantee it happens everywhere. This guy shows all his graphics about the storm, where it's supposed to go and all that neat stuff. The consensus from many of the models has Alex striking Mexico well south of Brownsville. OK, whew, looks like we'll miss this one. Oh, but wait! Before weather guy finishes up he has to show that ONE model, just ONE out of many, that has Alex heading for Galveston.

Now I get that any storm in the Gulf of Mexico is a concern for all along the Gulf coast, but come on! Did the guy doing New Orleans weather do the same, because there was a model that had Alex going to New Orleans too? I also get that these models are nowhere near the end all, be all when it comes to predicting where these storms go. I mean, none of the models had Rita taking the turn north until it started turning, even though 4 days before, the part I have in yellow above was common meteorological knowledge. So to see a vast majority of models taking this storm into Mexico doesn't mean that's where it's going, and any storm in the Gulf should be a concern to all along the Gulf coast.

If you live in hurricane country, it's just common sense (and we know how uncommon that's become) to start stocking up on essential supplies every summer. That's just what you're supposed to do. For whatever reason though, a whole lot people don't. So, weather guy puts out the possibility that Alex is headed our way, and I've already heard that grocery stores in Alvin, TX, just south of Houston, have empty shelves where bottled water used to be. Really? Already in a panic for something that as of this writing has a 3% chance of just bringing us tropical storm force winds (39 mph), and a less than 1% chance of hurricane force. With the Rita example above, even though none of the major models had Rita going where it eventually did, the TX/LA border was still on the edge of the famous "cone of probability" and the probabilities for hurricane force winds were much, much greater than <1%. Galveston is not in this "cone" for Alex.

I suppose Lowes and Home Depot are probably jam packed today as well. And I guess in a way that's a good thing. If that gets you off your butt to go get your hurricane supplies for the season, then fine. Get it done. But that should be getting done anyway and shouldn't take a guy on TV "scaring" it into you telling you that a tropical wave just off the African coast could come our way in about 21 days so stay tuned as we follow it 24/7 over every wave on it's 4,000+ mile journey across the freaking Atlantic Ocean right into Galveston Bay because this is where a storm that hit us in 1918 started. Never mind the fact that this is where 90% of all tropical systems begin.

Then again, with where people's heads seem to be these days, maybe that's why the fear mongering. They're just not going to do what they need to do unless they feel the situation is imminent. But there's also the point of overkill too. If you beat it to death every time there's a cloud over water and these storms end up missing by hundreds of miles, then people start to tune out. You start sounding like Charlie Brown's teacher. We don't need to see 30 minute newscasts where 20 minutes of it is dedicated to a storm that is little to no threat to us, filled with destruction footage of every hurricane we've ever had, with interviews with emergency management officials from every county in Texas.

Again, I get the need to keep people informed. How about just doing that? Hurricanes are a HUGE concern for all who live in their paths so having all the information you can get is critical. What we don't need is bad info or misinformation. Newscasts in New Orleans need to let people know there's a storm in the Gulf, but they do NOT need to go ape crazy over it, focus on one renegade model that has it coming straight for them and whip out all the Katrina footage and get everybody rushing to empty store shelves of everything they have. That's idiotic and just not necessary.

So let Alex be the thing that gets you out to stock up on water, batteries, maybe a few canned goods, wood or what have you because here in hurricane country you're supposed to do that at the start of hurricane season (June) anyway. That goes for anyone from the southernmost islands of the Lesser Antilles to all the countries of the Caribbean to Mexico and the Gulf coast states to the entire eastern seaboard of the U.S. to Newfoundland, Canada. Then if we do get a storm, you don't have to go all panic mode trying to fight the crowds to get everything all at once only to find out you're too late. Shelves are empty.

And media, just report the facts. Quit trying to scare the population and beat us down with non-stop hurricane coverage for storms that are little to no threat to us because you're trying to outdo the other station for ratings. There's a storm in the Gulf. Here's where the warning areas are. Here's where the major, more reliable, models have it going, and let's leave it at that. I don't need to see footage of the Great Galveston storm of 1900..........

...........AGAIN!