PROSPECTS, SCHMOSPECTS

For the first time in a very, very long time, certainly the first time in the Drayton McLane era (1993 - ), the Houston Astros have become sellers at the Major League Baseball trade deadline, and big sellers at that. In the last two days, the Astros have traded, not one, but two of the most popular icons in team history, Roy Oswalt and Lance "The Big Puma" Berkman. Why? Because the Astros are not a very good baseball team and in the business of baseball, in order to try to turn things around more quickly, you sometimes have to trade away players, good players, in return for what people in the business call, prospects. These are usually unproven players, Minor League players, who have yet to make their mark. Every player who has ever played the game has been a prospect. Sometimes they turn into great players, Hall of Fame players, sometimes they're just mediocre, and sometimes they stink.

There is no exact science in determining how a prospect will do so it's always a gamble when you trade away proven stars for them. But the reason it's done is a numbers game. If you trade away a proven player, the goal is to get as many unproven players or prospects as you can in hopes of at least one of them turning into a star player. Teams are more willing to give up multiple unproven players for someone that is proven, that they know has had success in the game. This helps the team that isn't doing so well build their organization back up a little quicker and the team trading for the proven star gets someone who will help them immediately, likely to help them in a playoff run. And just like baseball, sometimes you hit a home run doing this, but you're just as likely to strike out.

Since Drayton McLane bought the Astros in 1993, they have been one of the better teams in baseball. What helped them get to that point was a trade they made 3 years prior, at the deadline, with the Boston Red Sox, who were in the middle of a playoff race and were in need of a late innings relief pitcher to give them much needed help in that area. The Astros were a bad team in 1990 and they had such a reliever, Larry Anderson, who was having a very good year for the lowly Astros. Boston was willing to give up a minor league prospect, an unproven, skinny little 3rd baseman that was still two levels away from being in the Majors. That scrawny little guy went by the name of Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell, of course, went on to win the National League Rookie of the Year in '91, was NL Most Valuable Player in '94, a 4-time All-Star and went on to hit 449 home runs (34th most All-Time), in his 15 year career with the Astros, and who in my opinion, should be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame next year, his 1st year to be eligible.

Now, if Boston had known this kid they had was going to do all of that, they would have never dealt him for a relief pitcher, especially a relief pitcher who pitched just 25 innings for the Sox, including 3 innings in the playoffs where they got swept. Anderson was a free agent after that season and never played for the Red Sox again. But they were in a playoff race and had a need to strengthen their team. Bagwell wasn't ready for the Majors at that time and couldn't help them, Anderson was ready and could help them now. And that's how and why things usually work at Major League Baseball's trade deadline. Teams need players who can help them now and trade away players who may only help them down the road.

As I mentioned, the Astros were a good team for most of the 90's, when McLane bought the team, and on into the 2000's, where they finally made it to their first ever World Series. So they've always been a team looking to trade for a player who could help them now every time the trade deadline rolled around. A great example would be 1998 when the Astros gave up 3 unproven prospects (Carlos Guillen, Freddy Garcia and John Halama) to get one of the greatest pitchers the game has ever seen, Randy Johnson. Johnson came to the Astros and helped them to the most wins in a season they've ever had (102), by going 10-1. Unfortunately, the Astros lost in the playoffs and Johnson signed with Arizona the next year. Carlos Guillen went on to be a 3 time All-Star, Garcia was a 2 time All-Star, and they both could have helped the Astros in the early 2000's. That makes it look like it was a bad trade since Johnson only pitched 13 games for the Astros while these other players had very productive years for the next several years (John Halama sucked), but the Astros needed help in '98 that they couldn't get from them then.

Here in 2010, though they're about 3 or 4 years late, the Astros find themselves in a position they found themselves in when they got Bagwell. Instead of being buyers like they have been the last decade or so (Johnson, Carlos Beltran, etc), the Astros are in a position to sell proven players for prospects. And since they haven't tried to sell for prospects the last 3 or 4 years like they should have, they find themselves with not a whole lot to offer - except for the big stars. Enter Oswalt and Berkman. Unlike past icons, Biggio and Bagwell, where Drayton was determined that they spend their entire careers in Houston at any cost, he's finally come to the realization that in doing it this way, the cost is losing baseball games and having a bad baseball team. So for the first time ever, Drayton McLane is trading away his proven players and rolling the dice on prospects.

The first shot fired was Oswalt being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies for a 2nd year Major League pitcher, J.A. Happ. Though Happ has a full season already under his belt, it's still much too early to tell what his career holds. They get another player that they immediately flip to Toronto to get Brett Wallace, a highly touted unproven prospect. He may be making his Major League debut for the Astros very shortly. They also get a 19 year old shortstop, Jonathan Villar, who is likely several years away from helping the Astros, if he ever does. That's the thing, you just don't know. 3 unproven prospects for one proven star. The Phillies get that proven star to try to help them make the playoffs now. These other guys can't help them now, but they might be able to help the Astros down the road.

The second shot fired was a day later when the Astros trade All-Star first baseman, Lance Berkman, to the New York Yankees. At the time of this writing it was still unclear who the Astros would be getting in return but rumors are it will be 2 minor league players.

So the Astros trade away 2 players and get 5 in return. Yeah, it's 2 big name players for 5 no-names, but that's the way it works since it's such a gamble with unproven players. You now have to hope that at least a couple of those no-names can turn into big names and you're on your way to rebuilding your team and becoming good again. If you strike out, it's going to take a little longer. Hopefully your scout team earns their money. Maybe you strike gold and get another Jeff Bagwell. It sucks that it works that way sometimes, and you always hate losing your favorite players, but that's just the nature of the game. 21 years years after the fact, I'm still bent the Astros let Terry Puhl go.

Maybe I should call my proctologist.